Solar Forecast Arbiter

A paradigm shift in forecast evaluation

The Solar Forecast Arbiter supports a paradigm shift in the way we evaluate solar and net-load forecasts. For too long we have been unclear with each other and even with ourselves about what, exactly, we are evaluating and how the evaluation is done. Whether you're a forecast user, vendor, or researcher, the Solar Forecast Arbiter will force you to think about your analysis and what really matters before you start parsing data and calculating statistics. This can be an unfamiliar and uncomfortable process. Stick with it and we think you'll see the value in this approach. So what's the value? Clear, transparent communication of the skill of a precisely-defined forecast.

The Solar Forecast Arbiter is open source to its core. The code is open source, the deployment configurations are open source, and the code is openly developed on GitHub. This leads to evaluations of solar irradiance, solar power, and net-load forecasts that are impartial, repeatable and auditable. Dive into the code at github.com/SolarArbiter.

This project page contains reference materials describing project use cases, metrics, reference data, and more under the Other Topics menu. Visit the Solar Forecast Arbiter Dashboard to browse data and evaluate forecasts. Documentation for the Dashboard, API, and core analysis package is available at the Documentation page.

For a quick introduction to the project, see this ESIG blog post or this short presentation recording. Additional information may be found on the publications page and our YouTube Channel.

The Solar Forecast Arbiter supports the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office Solar Forecasting 2 program and the broader solar forecast community. See the funding page for more information on the project's DOE SETO funding.